Why Israel has attacked Iran and could it lead to WW3?

Israel has attacked Iran in response to a strike last weekend. So why did they attack and what will happen next?

US officials have confirmed that Israel carried out military operations against Iran. President Joe Biden was told yesterday a strike would occur in the next 24 to 48 hours.

According to CNN, Israel told America they would not be targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities but Iranian state media reported air defence batteries had been activated after an explosion near a major airbase.

The city, Isfahan, is home to sites associated with Iran’s nuclear programme, including an enrichment site, but the UN nuclear watchdog has confirmed no damage to the site.

Video from Isfahan posted on BBC Persian's Instagram account shows orange flashes in the night sky and the sound of what appears to be bursts of anti-aircraft fire.

Why has Israel attacked Iran?

On April 1, Israel launched a strike on the Syrian capital of Damascus which destroyed an Iranian diplomatic building and killed a senior Iranian figure and eight other officers.

Under international law, a country’s embassies are treated as their sovereign territory — not those of the country hosting them. Therefore attacking one is the same as attacking the country itself.

In response, Iran launched hundreds of drones as well as cruise missiles toward Israel on April 13, in the Islamic Republic’s first-ever direct attack on the Jewish state. Iran signalled afterward that it considered the matter closed.

What will happen next?

Iran’s foreign minister told CNN yesterday that if Israel chooses to retaliate, Tehran’s response would be immediate. It added that it would respond with a “much larger” attack.

“If the Israeli regime commits the great error once again our response will be decisive, definitive and regretful for them,” Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said.

Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, said on social media: “Future escalation depends on target and it’s too early to know that. Either way, message from Israel: we can hit the nuke facility.”

Iran has not yet said how it will respond to the attack on Thursday night.

What will the UK and the US do next?

Israel, meanwhile, has backing among the Western powers, as seen when they united to bring down Tehran’s barrage of rockets and drones earlier this month.

Mr Biden spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and made clear that the US would not participate in any offensive operations against Iran, a senior White House official told CNN.

But, Israel told the United States that it’s not “looking for a significant escalation with Iran,” a senior Biden administration told reporters Sunday.

Could it spark WW3?

Hugh Lovatt, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, argued that conflicts around the world are self-contained and said “we are not heading towards the Third World War”.

Grant Shapps, the Defence Secretary, has warned that in as little as five years time there could be multiple threats of conflict spread across the globe: Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.

Figures in NATO and Western governments have predicted a war with Vladimir Putin could break out in a matter of years.

Edward R. Arnold, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said: “Vladimir Putin will be looking pretty closely at what happens in the Middle East.

“It’s all helping Putin at the moment because while focused on the Middle East we are not as focused as we have been on Ukraine.”