Racing analysis tips Limerick Lace as frontrunner in this weekend's Grand National
Data from the last 30 races at Aintree shows the Irish-trained mare ticks the winning horse boxes based on weight, history, and racing odds.
Limerick Lace is the front runner for this year’s Grand National – based on statistical analysis of the previous 30 races. The seven-year-old mare is seen as the favourite by experts, based on its weight, place of origin, and racing history.
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Other strong contenders include last year’s second-placed horse, Vanillier, along with Adamantly Chosen – both of whom were trained in Ireland.
Mathematical statisticians found the average age of all winners is nine years old – bringing in a host of prospects, such as 2022 winner Noble Yeats, Coko Beach, Stattler, Vanillier, and Farouk D’alene. In fact, winners of the last eight races were all nine or younger.
However, if weight has anything to do with it, the jockeys for Run Wild Fred, Minella Crooner, and Latenightpass, are closest to the average 10st 9lbs of the typical winning rider.
Limerick Lace and Adamantly Chosen’s jockeys come in a little lighter at 10st 8lbs, while Vanillier's is slightly heavier, at 10st 12lbs.
The analysts from Lottoland.co.uk's Sportsbook found only 60 percent of horses will complete the track, with one in five falling at the first fence – suggesting an outside bet could come up trumps.
Nigel Birrell, CEO at Lottoland, said: “The Aintree Grand National really grabs the public imagination, and millions of people will likely be watching the action from Aintree this Saturday afternoon.
“Once again, we’ve put our statisticians to work to find the key numbers and trends to follow for Grand National quick picks.”
The first ever winner of The Grand National at Aintree was actually a horse called Lottery, who was the 5/1 favourite back in 1839.
But the average starting price of the last 30 winners is 22/1 – which brings in previous Grand National winner, Noble Yeats, and former Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, Minella Indo, as well as Nassalam and Limerick Lace into play.
And only six of the last 30 runnings of the Grand National were won by the horse tipped to be the favourite to win.
Nigel Birrell added: “Based on their research, the ones to watch this year are Limerick Lace and Vanillier, who both have the same trainer in Ireland, as well as Adamantly Chosen.
“Whether you usually use your favourite lottery numbers, your zodiac sign, your birthdays, or the sum total of your pets ages to make your big race selection, we hope the research comes in handy for this huge annual Aintree spectacular.”
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