SNP oil revenue forecast ‘out by £15.5billion’
THE Scottish Government’s oil revenue forecast for the first three years of independence is now out by £15.5billion, it was claimed yesterday.
Scottish Secretary Alistair Carmichael said the latest UK Government analysis showed that, 100 days after the referendum, a breakaway country would have faced the huge shortfall because of plunging oil prices.
He said “serious questions” needed to be asked about how the SNP “got this so badly wrong”.
UK Government figures suggest that the current falling price of oil would have provided £4.7bn for an independent Scotland between 2016/17 and 2018/19.
This is in contrast to Scottish Government predictions of £20.2bn being generated over the same period.
Mr Carmichael said: “On the day of the referendum, Nicola Sturgeon and John Swinney were predicting ‘a second oil boom’.
“Scottish Government economists told us oil would be £70 per barrel.
“Now, just 100 days later, with the price standing at £38, there is a £15.5bn hole in the finances of independence.
“That is a £155million mistake for every day that has passed since the referendum.
“Serious questions need to be asked about how they could have got this so badly wrong”
Mr Carmichael said it was “totally unacceptable” and the Scottish Government must take steps to “restore confidence” in any future oil analysis.
He said: “At the same time, we will work closely with the industry to address the challenges it faces and maintain the UK’s energy security by maximising the economic recovery of our oil and gas resources.”
But a spokesman for Deputy First Minister John Swinney accused Mr Carmichael of hypocrisy, saying the UK Government’s Energy Department had also last year forecast oil would be at much higher price than it is.
He added: “Instead of, bizarrely, gloating over his own Government’s lower than expected revenues, Mr Carmichael should do all he can to help the industry, which has too often been subject to wildly fluctuating taxation from successive Westminster governments.
“Oil is a bonus, not the basis of Scotland’s economy, and will be a fantastic asset for Scotland for decades to come, with as much in value still to come as has already been extracted.
“Most independent forecasts expect the price to rise again next year.”
