Labour battle: Starmer favourite - but support craters among Leave supporters
SIR Keir Starmer is the clear front-runner for the Labour leadership contest - but enjoys the support of fewer than one in five party members who vote Leave in 2016, a new poll has indicated.
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The centrist shadow Brexit secretary would win the contest handily, a YouGov survey reported in The Guardian states. Sir Keir would beat left winger Rebecca Long-Bailey, who has said she is considering a leadership bid, 61 percent to 39 percent in a run off, according to the survey of Labour members. The election process will be launched next week, with the new leader taking over in March following Labour’s worst election performance since 1935, under Jeremy Corbyn.
The third most popular choice among those surveyed was outspoken Birmingham Yardley MP Jess Phillips, who has also not said whether she will stand.
Prof Tim Bale of Queen Mary University of London, who jointly ran the poll with the University of Sussex, told The Guardian: “This is not shaping up to be a 2015-style Labour leadership contest.
“Unless potential candidates drop out before the start of voting, it may take a few rounds to decide the winner this time around.
Right now anyway, Keir Starmer looks to be heading for a fairly emphatic victory
“But it doesn’t look at the moment as if the winner will come from the left of the party.
“Right now anyway, Keir Starmer looks to be heading for a fairly emphatic victory.”
Mr Starmer has yet to declare his candidacy officially.
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However, he appeared to position himself for a leadership bid by tweeting a link to his website on Boxing Day, with the message: “The moral fight against injustice, poverty and homelessness must continue.
“Join me and we’ll take the fight to the Tories.”
At present only shadow foreign secretary, Emily Thornberry, and the shadow treasury minister, Clive Lewis, have formally announced they will stand for the party leadership.
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Wigan MP Lisa Nandy, party chairman Ian Lavery, and Commons Home Affairs Committee chairwoman Yvette Cooper are also believed to be considering entering the contest.
The poll of 1,059 Labour party members put Sir Keir on 31 percent for first choice votes, 20 percent backed Ms Long-Bailey, Ms Phillips received 11 percent, and Mr Lewis and Ms Cooper were the first choice for seven percent.
Ms Thornberry was on six percent and Ms Nandy was backed by five percent as first choice.
With less popular candidates eliminated, a final run-off would see Sir Keir beat Ms Long-Bailey in the last round, according to the survey.
Brexit could have an impact on the result as Ms Long-Bailey is rated first choice by 19 percent of Labour members who voted Remain, but scores 31 percent of those who voted Leave.
Sir Keir is backed as first choice by 34 percent of Remainers in the survey - but only backed by 17 percent of Leavers.
Mr Corbyn remains Labour leader, and has not yet said when he will be standing down.
Speaking the day after his crushing defeat, he said: “The national executive will have to meet, of course, in the very near future and it is up to them. It will be in the early part of next year.”
The survey was commissioned from YouGov by the Party Members Project, which is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council.