How do you feel about this pair running Britain?

WHATEVER you think of Sir John Major’s time as prime minister from 1990 to 1997, the UK should always be grateful to him for one towering achievement.

Ed Miliband and Nicola Sturgeon GETTY/REX

The Union is under threat if Ed Miliband does a deal with Nicola Sturgeon

In securing our opt-out from membership of the euro he stood firm against the political tide and protected us from disaster.

For that alone he deserves the accolades of history.

But he has also shown, with quiet dignity, exactly how former prime ministers should behave.

We rarely hear from him; he keeps his views to himself for the most part.

But when he does speak out, the impact of his words is powerful and the sense that we should listen is magnified.

Which is why his latest intervention demands to be listened to.

Writing yesterday, he argued that with the polls showing that Labour is extremely unlikely to be able to form a majority government after May’s election, there is a severe danger that Ed Miliband could resort to being propped up by the resurgent, rampant Scottish National Party.

And should that happen, it would presage the possible, even likely, break-up of the UK.

As Sir John puts it: “The SNP would enter into any agreement with Labour with one overriding aim: to break up the United Kingdom.”

That means, he says, that Ed Miliband must now – immediately – “summon the courage” to rule out any possibility of post-election deals with the SNP and stop the nationalists forcing the next government “to prise the UK apart”.

The scenario he paints looks so plausible.

The latest polls in Scotland show Labour losing 36 of its 41 seats.

Gordon Brown’s Kirkcaldy seat could go to the SNP after a forecast 28 per cent swing.

So too Alistair Darling’s Edinburgh constituency.

Even the new Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy would be out.

Such a result would be a double whammy to Labour and the future of the UK.

Not only would Labour’s chances of securing a majority have been smashed apart, but the party that had done the smashing would then be offering itself as the means by which Ed Miliband could nonetheless still become prime minister.

The current estimate of seats implied by an aggregate of the latest polls is that the Conservatives would have 281 MPs (losing 26 seats from 2010), Labour 265 (gaining 7), the Lib Dems 24 (down by 33 on 2010) and SNP 55.

That’s a hung parliament.

But add the SNP’s 55 seats to Labour’s 265 and you have – almost – enough to govern.

And the price of that SNP support?

Ed Miliband must now “summon the courage” to rule out any possibility of post-election deals with the SNP

As Sir John writes, Labour “would be relying on support from a party that will use every strategy it can to break free of the UK”.

The SNP’s “overriding aim” would be “to break up the United Kingdom”.

It is a nightmare scenario for the UK – a weak Labour PM dependant on its mortal enemy to govern.

And it would be a political stitch-up of the worst possible kind, with Labour putting its short-term interest so far ahead of the national, UK, interest that it could actually destroy the nation itself.

When the saving of the union was toasted last September after the referendum few saw that the next development would be an immediate soaring in the SNP’s poll ratings and the near total collapse of Labour.

But that is what has happened – and it is obvious when you stop and think.

Why would a Scottish voter who had voted Yes in the independence referendum then suddenly switch to supporting a unionist party for Westminster?

We now know, thanks to Lord Ashcroft’s polls, that 30 per cent of those Scots who voted Labour in 2010 now say they will vote SNP in May.

Sir John Major accuses Ed Miliband of “shameful” behaviour in refusing to rule out a deal.

As he writes: “Labour now have to make a choice.

"They must summon the courage of their convictions and declare their intent.

“The British people – north and south of the border – do not deserve to be misled.

"Labour must remove any doubt.

"If the outcome of the general election is inconclusive, will they refuse to govern with the support of a party whose principal aim is to break up the United Kingdom?”

But it’s not just former Tory prime ministers who are enraged at such a stitch-up, forsaking the UK itself simply to get Ed Miliband into Number 10.

Many in Labour – especially in Scotland – are incandescent with rage.

At a meeting in Westminster this week attended by 30 of Labour’s 41 Scottish MPs, Douglas Alexander – a Scottish Labour MP and the party’s campaign organiser – was told he must publicly rule out any such deal.

That message was apparently repeated to the Labour leader at the weekly MPs’ meeting.

Scottish MPs are desperate, facing an SNP that appears to be unstoppable.

And Ed Miliband’s refusal to rule out a deal adds to their plight.

They know that the prospect of Labour governing with the SNP’s support destroys any message that a vote for the SNP is dangerous folly.

It can’t, after all, be that dangerous if Ed Miliband is preparing to govern with their help.

Ed Miliband is speaking today in Edinburgh.

If he still refuses to rule out a deal the signal to the Scots will be clear: Labour is powerless to resist the SNP’s bandwagon.

And to the rest of us his message will be that the UK is expendable if he can find a way to get into Number 10. 

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